Gartner: Vendors and AI investments under pressure due to geopolitical factors

Fifty percent of CIOs and technology executives outside the United States anticipate changes in vendor engagement due to regional factors, compared to only 31% of their U.S.-based counterparts, according to an annual global survey of more than 2,500 CIOs and technology executives by Gartner.

“Driven by the geopolitics of AI, CIOs and technology executives should recognize that vendor geography and data sovereignty risks are now viewed by many of their peers as a critical consideration in developing a global vendor portfolio,” said Chris Howard, Distinguished VP Analyst, Chief of Research at Gartner. “This criteria is likely to rise in importance based on growing geopolitical risks and cost pressures.”

The survey, conducted in May -June 2025, included 2,501 CIOs and technology executives across all geographies, revenue bands, as well as public and private industry sectors. Because of these geopolitical risks and cost pressures, one in three CIOs outside the U.S. are looking to increase focus on engaging with technology vendors based on their region. Only 16% of U.S. CIOs are making similar claims (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Approach to Vendor Engagement in the Next Six Months, U.S. vs. Non-U.S. CIOs and Technology Executives (Percentage of Respondents)

“All technology vendors, but especially those in the U.S., should be aware of this because it is a threat to their ability to serve as ‘vendors of choice’ across a global market,” said Howard. “We predict that this is the beginning of a shift toward ‘geopatriation’ where technology leaders move more of their virtual workloads into solutions designed to reduce geopolitical risk.”

Source: Gartner (October 2025)

From Defending AI Pilots to Expanding Into Agentic AI

With vendor strategy decisions being shaped by evolving business needs and market dynamics, CIOs are still prioritizing aggressively increasing investment in AI and supporting technologies that will create competitive differentiation.

“2025 was about AI pilots, discovery and experimentation. 2026 will be about delivering agentic AI ROI,” said Kris van Riper, Practice Vice President at Gartner. “GenAI will continue to be important, but agentic AI will soon become the main investment focus. Agentic AI offers a more direct path to business value than previous GenAI initiatives. However successfully achieving value from these investments requires internally-developed capabilities across five key value pillars: a business-aligned AI roadmap, clear and measurable value targets, upskilling initiatives for workforce readiness, robust data governance​ practices and the ability to reprioritize resources.”

Failure to execute on these elements risks missing critical ROI targets. Investing in these pillars for value achievement are especially important right now because 64% of technology executives plan to deploy agentic AI across the next 24 months (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: State of Deployment for AI, GenAI and Agentic AI (Percentage of Respondents)

Source: Gartner (October 2025)

“Technology executives have advanced AI and GenAI deployments and are now expanding into agentic AI,” said van Riper. “This progression reflects a strategic focus on leveraging AI’s next frontier for greater impact on operations and customer experience. We are seeing a significant prioritization of AI investments, which are expected to grow by more than 35% year-over-year. This is in the context of a very constrained IT budget environment.”

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